PackersGiantsWeek5Fantasy

Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) runs from New England Patriots's Jack Jones, right, during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 2, 2022, in Green Bay, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

After an unexpected thriller in Week 4 against a New England Patriots team on its third-string quarterback, the Green Bay Packers now travel abroad to take on the New York Giants.

The NFL has played 31 games over the last 15 years in London and this matchup Sunday morning will be the first that features two teams with winning records at the time they play. It’s an unimaginably horrid streak that will finally come to an end.

Green Bay got its offense rolling throughout large durations of the game against the Patriots and the damage could’ve even been worse if not for two costly turnovers and a dropped touchdown by wide receiver Romeo Doubs. 

Now the Packers will face a Giants defense that has limited fantasy production by opposing quarterbacks but has coughed up some big numbers to running backs.

Wink Martindale pushes the buttons for New York’s defense and like he did for so many years in Baltimore as its defensive coordinator, he brings plenty of pressure. 

Nobody blitzes more than the Giants which is something Green Bay will certainly be preparing for.

If you need explanations on the categories for our fantasy guide, take a peek at our Week 1 guide

Let’s dive right into this Packers-Giants matchup and discuss some fantasy football.

DON’T THINK TWICE

Giants RB Saquon Barkley

Last week, Green Bay’s No. 32 run defense in DVOA went up against New England’s No. 1 rushing offense in DVOA. The results were as expected even with the Patriots being extremely predictable having thrown a rookie quarterback into the gauntlet for his first NFL action. Everyone knew New England would lean on the run and it still had success with Damien Harris rushing for 86 yards on 18 carries and Rhamondre Stevenson going for 66 yards on 14 rushes. Enter Barkley. The Giants’ star running back leads the NFL with 463 rushing yards. Green Bay has been gashed on the ground all season long and Barkley has five carries of 20+ yards. This one is simple, don’t think twice and make sure to put Barkley in your lineup.

Packers RB Aaron Jones

Chicago Bears running back Khalil Herbert piled up 77 yards on the ground against the Giants a week ago and quarterback Justin Fields tacked on another 52. On the season the Giants are ranked 23rd against running backs in fantasy football, yielding 17.5 points per week on average. Jones has the hot hand coming off a day against New England where he ran for 110 yards and was still second in carries to AJ Dillon (16 to 17). The latter isn’t a big deal but paints a picture of that many rushing attempts. Green Bay knows its bread is buttered best when Jones is fed and can feast and there’s no reason he shouldn’t see 20 or more combined touches against the Giants. Plug Jones in.

HIGH FLOOR

Green Bay D/ST

Yes, Green Bay’s defense gave up 17 points to the Patriots but outside of two touchdown drives, the defense was lights out for defensive coordinator Joe Barry in stalling out New England possessions. The Patriots had success on the ground, but the Packers brought to the table with them a bend-don’t-break mentality and it worked. Green Bay racked up four sacks and forced a turnover against the Patriots and now it will face a Giants team with a ton of questions at wide receiver and an unknown of whether or not quarterback Daniel Jones will be good to go. This matchup leans heavily in favor of Green Bay. Defenses are averaging 10 points per week against New York’s offense. It’s a high floor for Green Bay’s defense and Rashan Gary and Preston Smith should be ready to attack a shaky offensive line.

Giants D/ST

Martindale is the king of the blitz, never shying away from bringing pressure. That’s a given. What has been puzzling this year through four games is Green Bay’s turnover rate. The Packers have had at least one fumble lost in each game this year and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has three interceptions. In the last three seasons Green Bay has had 13, 11 and 13 turnovers total in the Matt LaFleur era in each season. This year, through four games, the Packers already have seven. New York could see this as somewhat of an advantageous spot where, yes, they’re facing Rodgers, but Green Bay has yet to hit its stride on offense. Defenses are averaging 10.9 points per week against the Packers’ offense and even if Green Bay does find a rhythm, this is a spot where New York’s defense should get enough points to make them worth a start.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers faced a Martindale defense last year when the Packers took on the Ravens in December. The back-to-back MVP winner threw for 268 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions although he was sacked three times. From a fantasy football perspective, Rodgers has been less than stellar through four games with zero games eclipsing 255 passing yards or two touchdowns. Add in the three interceptions in four games and it’s been an uncharacteristic start for Rodgers. Despite that, and despite the Giants being middle of the pack in opposing quarterback fantasy numbers this year, Rodgers has a high floor this week. The chemistry between Rodgers and wideout Romeo Doubs grew even more in Week 4 and wide receiver Allen Lazard had 116 yards receiving himself. So far this season the Giants have played these quarterbacks: Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush and Justin Fields. It’s not exactly the names you’ll find leading the charge in MVP voting. Rodgers is by far the best quarterback New York will have faced to date and Rodgers’ history tells us the interception numbers won’t continue. Expect a top-10 quarterback week for Rodgers in fantasy football.

Packers WR Allen Lazard

New York ranks No. 2 in opposing wide receiver fantasy points but the number is a bit skewed when it comes to the cream of the crop the last two weeks. Two weeks ago, Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb had eight receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown and last week Bears wideout Darnell Mooney had 94 yards receiving. Lazard and Rodgers have the rapport and the one called “The Lizard King” is starting to find a groove. He may not go for 116 yards again like he did against the Patriots, but it’d be foolish not to have Lazard in your lineup. The floor is high.

FEAST OR FAMINE

Packers RB AJ Dillon

Dillon is getting the touches but he’s only found the end zone once so far this season. Against the Patriots, Dillon had 73 yards rushing but no touchdowns and only one reception. His receiving game was on display in Week 1 against the Vikings but in the last three games Dillon has just four total receptions. If he finds the end zone, you can trust the rushing yards and carries will also add up but if he doesn’t score the touchdown, it could be another week with high volume but low fantasy results.

Packers WR Romeo Doubs

Doubs is becoming more and more popular in Green Bay’s offense and has a touchdown in two straight contests. The problem is that in three of four games this season, Doubs has receiving yard totals of 37, 27 and 47 yards. Like Dillon, if he gets a touchdown, it’ll be a great play but if he doesn’t, it could be a quiet week for Doubs. The consistency is starting to show up as he’s been targeted eight times in back-to-back games now the final pieces of the puzzle just need to be put together.

Giants QB Daniel Jones

What makes him so tempting is his legs in fantasy football formats. In the last two games, Jones has rushed for 68 and 79 yards with two rushing touchdowns. The big, glaring issue here is that Jones left the game against the Bears on Sunday with an ankle injury and was only put back in because of an emergency situation when backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor also left with a concussion. If Jones is hobbled at all it will severely limit what he can do with his legs and he has yet to have a game this year where he’s thrown for 200 or more yards. In fact, in the last two games, Jones doesn’t even have a passing touchdown. It’s an extremely risky play to plug in Jones if he gets clearance but the rewards could be handsome.

STASH AWAY

Any Giants WRs

The leading wide receiver a week ago for the Giants was Darius Slayton who had one reception for 11 yards. The week before that it was wide receiver Sterling Shepard who had 49 yards receiving but is now out for the year. Kenny Golladay has fallen off the face of the earth and didn’t even make the trip to London, Shepard is out for the year, Kadarius Toney has played in one game and has two catches for zero yards. It’s a mess in the wideout room for the Giants. Richie James and David Sills V could be leading the charge Sunday but stay away from either. There isn’t a Giants wide receiver worth playing in any format.

Packers TE Robert Tonyan

Tonyan almost went into the feast or famine category since he had a touchdown against the Patriots but he did only have two receptions for 22 yards. More importantly, he still appears to be on a pitch count. Tonyan played just 44% of the snaps against New England and until that number goes up along with the targets on a consistent basis, it’s just too risky to bank on Tonyan.

Giants TE Daniel Bellinger

The good news for the rookie tight end is he led the Giants in receiving a week ago. The bad news is he had just three catches for 23 yards. Bellinger hasn’t eclipsed 40 yards receiving in a game yet this year and has just one touchdown. He’s an afterthought in an offense that is starving for relevance in the pass-catching department. As the season carries on, Bellinger could have a more prominent role in the offense but for now, stash him away.