We’ll keep it simple this week.
Green Bay playing at home.
New England is 1-2, averaging 16.7 points per game and is expected to start Brian Hoyer, who hasn’t quarterbacked a team to a win since 2016 with Chicago.
The Packers are a 9 1/2-point favorite – the largest spread of any game this week (next highest: Eagles 6 1/2 over Jaguars).
Here’s this week’s predictions from around the web:
Rob Maaddi of the Associated Press: Packers 30, Patriots 13. “After beating Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, the Packers face the reeling Patriots.”
Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times: Packers 31, Patriots 13. “The Patriots probably will have Brian Hoyer at quarterback with no weapons and a bad offensive line. Green Bay’s defense is tough, and Aaron Rodgers is getting used to his new weapons.”
The Miami Herald’s Greg Cote: Packers 27, Patriots 13. “The Miami Herald’s Greg Cote: Vikings 21, Saints 18. “Bill Belichick keeps insisting that Mac Jones is “day-to-day.” (Existentially, though, aren’t we all, really?) In fact Jones’ ankle sprain will shelve him several weeks, so enter Brian Hoyer, who it feels like has been New England’s backup QB since 1978. Green Bay is great at home and the Pats kill themselves with turnovers. Oh and did I mention it’s Aaron Rodgers vs. Brian Hoyer?”
NFL.com’s Gregg Rosenthal: Packers 21, Patriots 15. “Mac Jones' injury is a shame because the Patriots' offense was showing signs of life. They are first in rushing DVOA and were throwing the ball downfield better than in Jones' rookie year. It's hard to imagine Brian Hoyer doing that, especially in this matchup. It's also hard to give the Packers nearly 10 points when they are averaging 16 per game.”
Pete Prisco of CBSSports.com: Packers 27, Patriots 14. “The Patriots will be without Mac Jones in this one, which means it's Brian Hoyer at quarterback. That's not a good thing against the Green Bay defense. The Packers are also back heathy on the offensive line, which will help get the passing game get going. I think that happens here. Packers big.”
John Breech of CBSSports.com: Packers 24, Patriots 13.
Tyler Sullivan of CBSSports.com: Packers 28, Patriots 17.
Jordan Dajani of CBSSports.com: Packers 23, Patriots 10. “Both of the Patriots' losses this season have come by double digits. It wasn't ideal that all of the Packers' 14 points last week came on their first two drives of the game, but the defense came through to keep Green Bay in the win column.”
Bill Bender of the Sporting News: Packers 24, Patriots 15. “Mac Jones (ankle) status is in question, which means Brian Hoyer would be up at Lambeau Field against a tough Packers' defense that ranks sixth in scoring defense through three weeks. The spread is way too high given Green Bay's offensive struggles and how Bill Belichick can exploit some of those. Rodgers, however, makes enough plays at home – where he is 23-2 in the regular season since Matt LaFleur took over.”
Vinnie Iyer of the Sporting News: Packers 30, Patriots 10 (labeled his “lock of the week”). “The Packers are back rolling with the ideal offense-defense complementary football with Matt LaFleur and Aaron Rodgers after their typical Week 1 mess. Rodgers outdueled the GOAT last week and now he'll take to the shell of his former team against a shockingly reeling Bill Belichick defense. The Patriots will need to hope that Brian Hoyer, filling in for an injured Mac Jones, can dig deep to find something more in the passing game while being too run heavy. That won't work well on the road in their current dysfunctional offensive state.”
Henry McKenna of FOXSports.com: Packers 21, Patriots 10. “The Packers should run away with this game. The Patriots' offense has a plethora of problems even with their starting quarterback. If Jones is out and Hoyer starts, the challenges may be insurmountable. Rodgers should take charge in this game and lead his team to a comfortable victory, even if the Packers continue to play ugly.”
Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Packers 30, Patriots 14.
Jim Derry of Nola.com: Packers 24, Patriots 17. “I wouldn’t put a dime on this game if I found one on Poydras Street a block away from Harrahs. But since I have to pick every game, I will take Bill Belichick to find a way to keep it close – even without Mac Jones – against a Packers team that easily could let their guard down a little bit after two big victories.”
Don Brennan of the Toronto Sun: Packers 28, Patriots 10.
Pro Football Talk’s Michael David Smith and Mike Florio: MDS –Packers 28, Patriots 13; Florio – Packers 28, Patriots 20.
Ken Schott of The Daily Gazette: Packers 34, Buccaneers 7.
ESPN’s Eric Moody and Seth Walder: Moody – Packers 29, Patriots 3; Walder – Packers 24, Patriots 0.
Philly Voice’s Jimmy Kempski: Packers.
David Fucillo of Draft Kings: Packers (high confidence).
Bleacher Report staff has an average score prediction of Packers 24, Patriots 12.
All four writers at Athlon Sports think the Packers will win.
All 13 SB Nation writers pick the Packers.
All eight analysts at CBSSports.com take the Packers to win.
All seven writers at USA Today predict a Packers victory.
All three over at For the Win are going with the Packers.
Stop us if you’ve heard this … all five analysts at SI.com are picking the Packers.
All eight analysts at ESPN pick the Packers (no pick from Laura Rutledge or Damien Woody as of this writing).