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Nov 28, 2021; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Cordarrelle Patterson (84) runs with the ball during the second half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

Bally Sports’ resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours legal sports in a search of market inefficiencies he’s willing to slap some action on. Each week, crack open a cold one with him as he sorts through his favorite six-pack of player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. (Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered.)

1. Joe Mixon OVER 83.5 rushing yards vs. Chargers (-115, DraftKings)

Sliding temps. Bruising running back. Rising defense. Cincinnati, largely on the back of Mixon, is a club built for December. Will it be a month to remember? For No. 28, that outcome seems almost inevitable. Morphing into one of the most successful workhorse RBs in the league, the rusher is thriving. He ranks in the top 10 at his position in total missed tackles forced (34) and yards after contact per attempt (3.34). With 58 total carries over the past two weeks, Mixon has shouldered exhaustive workloads, compiling 288 ground yards. Expect the volume to remain cranked. The Chargers’ struggles defending the run are well-documented. This season, they’ve yielded 4.63 yards per carry and 121.5 rushing yards per game to RBs. In total, five backs have topped 84 rushing yards against them. Purring at the right time, the prowling Bengal should exceed 100 yards for the third straight week.

2. Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 33.5 rushing yards vs. Buccaneers (-110, Caesars)

Patterson has established permanent residency in this column. Atlanta’s showman continues to annihilate all expectations, routinely smashing player props via ground and air. For a Falcons franchise absent explosive talent, he’s the indisputable bread and butter. Coming off a mild high-ankle sprain last week, he again demolished the competition, busting through arm tackles and ripping off long runs against Jacksonville. On a season-high 16 carries, he amassed 108 rush yards and two touchdowns. Expanding wide, he’s RB12 in yards after contact per attempt (3.24) and has powered past the proposed threshold in six of 10 games. Most backs need a crowbar to create space in the trenches against Vita Vea and company. This year, the Bucs have allowed only 3.75 yards per carry and 57.9 rushing yards per game to RBs. Still, this is a low barrier to hurdle for the league’s ultimate hybrid.

3. Kenyan Drake UNDER 15.5 receiving yards vs. Washington (-115, DraftKings)

Fallen out of favor. That best summarizes Drake’s rapid decline with the Raiders. Last week, his snap share bottomed out at 14.7 percent. Equally discouraging for over seekers, he has run eight or fewer routes in five of his last six contests, tucking under the proposed total in four of his last five games. Point blank, the coaching staff is leaning on Josh Jacobs more as a multipurpose back, pushing Drake to the back burner. Yes, seven rushers have bolted past the number above as Washington has allowed 4.7 receptions and 31.0 receiving yards per game to RBs. However, the downward turn in Drake’s usage is all the evidence needed to confidently fade.

4. Russell Wilson UNDER 229.5 passing yards vs. 49ers (-110, Caesars)

How quickly the tables can turn. Thought to be a MVP front-runner when the season began, Wilson, slowed by a bum finger and a lackluster rushing attack, has once again slipped into a deep second-half slump. Unable to hit the Jolly Green Giant on a quick slant, he’s a humiliating QB38 in adjusted completion percentage since Week 9. The last time he topped 230 passing yards in a game? Way back in Week 3. Earlier this season, he managed just 149 vertical yards against the rival Niners in Santa Clara. With San Francisco surging in all facets (the 49ers have given up 7.04 passing yards per attempt and 212.6 passing yards per game to QBs over their last five contests) and Wilson stuck in a quagmire, the under is a seemingly bankable bet.

5. Elijah Mitchell anytime TD at Seahawks (+115, FanDuel)

Fantasy gamers who shattered piggy banks to acquire Mitchell after a breakout game earlier this season against Detroit are chuckling all the way to the postseason. Bettors who’ve smashed the rookie’s overs are also laughing … to the bank. With Deebo Samuel sidelined due to a tender groin, Mitchell is sure to shoulder an enormous workload against suffering Seattle. The ‘Hawks have allowed a modest 3.85 yards per carry to RBs, but with Seattle surrendering a massive 177.2 total yards per game and 12 TDs to RBs, the matchup is undoubtedly stellar. Given the youngster’s fixed workhorse role, high YAC yields (RB2 in YAC/attempt) and three touchdowns scored in his last five games, he’s a sensational value to cross the chalk at plus odds.

6. Lamar Jackson OVER 66.5 rushing yards at Steelers (-115, DraftKings)

Memories of Justin Herbert running unencumbered against Pittsburgh are still top of mind. With the defense falling back in coverage, he read and reacted, shuttling his way to 90 yards on nine carries. Possibly without T.J. Watt and with an unraveling run defense, the Steel Curtain is rather soft, evidenced by its 4.78 yards per carry and 127.8 rushing yards per game yielded since Week 8. Jackson, who is setting the pace by netting 12.3 rush attempts per game, has climbed over the above number five times in 10 contests this season. If the Steelers, who rank middle of the pack in pressure rate this year, over-pursue or inadequately spy, Jackson will do at least 10 yards better than Herbert.

Season record

41-31 +9.25 units

Follow Bally Sports’ Brad Evans on Twitter.

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