Leading up to the NFL regular season, Bally Sports’ resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, scours legal sports in a search of prop market inefficiencies he’s willing to slap some action on. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. (Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered.)
The Line: Justin Fields 500.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
There may not be enough Old Styles in Chicago to alleviate the expected pain and misery for fans willing to endure a Bears franchise in rebuild mode. With Matt Nagy out and Matt Eberflus in as head coach, the team-wide emphasis will be predicated on defense and ball control. In other words, if the Bears exhibit sharpened claws defensively, they will run early and often.
Fields, who was grossly mismanaged by Nagy in his rookie season, should take off with more frequency in Year Two. Recall last season, once he was allowed to operate relatively freely, the quarterback averaged 51.6 rushing yards per game on 7.4 attempts per contest. Most impressively, he gained 63.8% of his yards after initial contact.
Critics will point to Chicago’s unremarkable offensive line as an area of weakness. To them, it amplifies injury risk. Though the O line remains a work in progress, Fields is a big-bodied passer (6-foot-3, 227 pounds) — in the Josh Allen vein — who is capable of absorbing body blows. A broken line also presents opportunity, as increased pressure would raise the chances of unscripted scoots.
Even if Fields missed a game or two, 600-plus ground yards are entirely attainable this season. In addition, several respected prognosticators have him finishing anywhere between 570 and 625 rushing yards in 2022. Hello, value!