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Arizona's Dalen Terry (4) celebrates after a play against UCLA during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the championship of the Pac-12 tournament Saturday, March 12, 2022, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/John Locher)

Bally Sports' Brad Evans projects the NCAA men's basketball tournament bracket if the regular season ended today.

(Power ranking listed with school)

No. 1 Seeds

1. Gonzaga (WCC; 26-3 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
1 10-3 59 *

Nembhard, Bolton a pair of unheralded guards. Reason why 'Zags earned auto ... again.

2. Arizona (Pac 12; 31-3 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
2 6-3 66 *

Absorbed the Kriisa loss with consecutive wins, including a stellar down-the-stretch showing vs. UCLA.

3. Kansas (Big 12; 27-6 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
7 12-5 9 *

Acquired college basketball leading 12th Quad 1 win by outlasting Texas Tech in Big 12 final.

4. Baylor (Big 12; 26-6 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
5 10-5 10

Why anything can happen in March? Baylor dropped game to Oklahoma team it won by 10, 14 against.

No. 2 Seeds

5. Kentucky (SEC; 26-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
4 9-7 22

Abysmal from outside against unrelenting Vols. Wildcats better wake up from three, and fast.

6. Auburn (SEC; 27-5 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
12 8-4 40 ⬇️

Shot a horrific 16.2% in the first half against Texas A&M. Poof! There goes the No. 1 seed.

7. Duke (ACC; 28-6 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
11 6-2 75

Defense has loosened measurably over the last month. Outside the top-130 in D efficiency during span.

8. Tennessee (SEC; 26-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
8 11-7 8 🔼 *

Formula for success is quite simple -- get turnovers, quick buckets and rain threes. Looking like a No. 2.

No. 3 Seeds

9. Villanova (BE; 26-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
6 7-6 17 *

Gillespie is an assassin. Pair of late triples in glacial matchup against Creighton sparked 'Nova to a title.

10. Purdue (Big Ten; 28-6 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
13 8-5 33 *

It's never easy for Boilers. 100-plus ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency always makes it interesting.

11. Wisconsin (Big Ten; 24-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
25 8-3 18

Tripped up against Michigan State. Now only 15-3 in games decided by six points or less. Fade in the Dance.

12. Texas Tech (Big 12; 25-9 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
9 8-9 15

Couldn't quite get over the hump against Jayhawks. Continue to sport No.1 adjusted defensive efficiency rank.

No. 4 Seeds

13. UCLA (Pac 12; 25-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
10 5-5 57

Third tango with USC proved to be a 10-point victory. One of four teams top-15 nationally in offensive/defensive efficiency.

14. Providence (BE; 25-5 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
33 5-3 55

Shot making is undeniably elite. When the shots don't fall, Creighton happens. Hard team to predict.

15. Illinois (Big Ten; 22-9 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
15 6-6 19

Illinois has the ingredients to make a deep run, but they are wildly unpredictable. Poor late-game execution vs. Indiana.

16. Arkansas (SEC; 25-8 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
20 7-6 52

Bumped into the buzzsaw that is Texas A&M. Outmuscled from tip to final buzzer. D still a force.

No. 5 Seeds

17. Houston (AAC; 29-5 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
3 2-4 101 *

Hard to decipher team. Relentless on offensive glass. D up. Up and down effort against Cincinnati.

18. UConn (BE; 23-9 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
17 5-6 43

Old school Big East feel in physical, but short, battle with Villanova. Grabbed 15 offensive boards.

19. St. Mary's (WCC; 24-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
19 4-7 54

Motivated 'Zags exacted revenge on Gaels. Still a dynamite team that's always in it due to staunch D.

20. Iowa (Big Ten; 26-9 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
14 4-6 50

Thrilling banker by 10th-year senior Jordan Bohannon with ticks remaining move the Hawkeyes on.

No. 6 Seeds

21. LSU (SEC; 22-11 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
18 6-9 34

Held in check by Arkansas from buzzer to buzzer. Erratic outside shooting a persistent problem -- 21.1 3PT% vs. Hogs.

22. Texas (Big 12; 21-11 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
16 5-10 14

Stumbling down the stretch, the 'Horns, despite their stellar D, have appearance of first round knockout.

23. Alabama (SEC; 19-13 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
28 8-8 1

Moronic execution late against Vandy. Another hard to place team, but SOS should elevate Tide.

24 USC (Pac 12; 26-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
35 4-4 88

Without a true PG and equipped with dreadful perimeter D, the Trojans are an early knockout candidate.

No. 7 Seeds

25. Boise State (MWC; 26-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
29 6-3 92 *

Once stout defense weakened down the stretch, but seemed to be reinforced in final against Aztecs.

26. Ohio State (Big Ten; 19-11 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
26 5-5 25

No Zed Key. No Kyle Young. Both sorely missed against Penn St. D issues persist.

27. Colorado State (MWC; 24-5 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
27 5-3 85

Rams rank inside the top-20 nationally in six different offensive categories. Capable of winning multiple games.

28. TCU (Big 12; 20-12 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
44 7-8 12

TCU is an aggressive defensive team that really gets after it on the glass. No easy W in Round of 64.

No. 8 Seeds

29. Seton Hall (BE; 20-10 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
37 6-7 27

Rollercoaster year, but Seton Hall a presumed single-digit seed thanks to superb SOS and Q1s.

30. Murray State (OVC; 27-2 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
21 2-1 218 *

Ja Morant U a legit mid-major darling. Haven't dropped a game since Dec. 12 at Auburn. Bubble teams, exhale.

31. Michigan State (Big Ten; 22-12 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
36 5-9 16

When the Spartans play controlled they can hang. See the Wisconsin game. Committed only seven TOs.

32. San Diego State (MWC; 23-8 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
24 5-8 69

Headlock teams on defense. No. 2 in the nation in fewest points per possession allowed.

No. 9 Seeds

33. Iowa State (Big 12; 20-12 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
47 9-8 11

Honestly a very difficult team to place. Terrific Quad 1 wins. Eye test measurement says ... Blah.

34. Marquette (BE; 19-12 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
41 6-7 20

Plummeting. Eagles capable of igniting from three, but bullish frontcourts a problem. Draw is everything.

35. San Francisco (WCC; 23-9 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
24 4-6 69

Eliminated BYU from WCC tourney, erasing all doubts about at-large. Dons were in already. Now WAY IN.

36. North Carolina (ACC; 24-9 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
32 3-8 58

Blasted and uncompetitive in lopsided loss to Virginia Tech. Here's the deal with UNC: Good luck figuring them out.

No. 10 Seeds

37. Creighton (BE; 23-10 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
55 7-6 38

A complete identity flip. Previous Jays teams hyper-efficient on offense. This year, all about the D.

38. Memphis (AAC; 21-10 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
31 5-4 76

Defense and talent combination makes Tigers awfully dangerous. Likely squashed SMU's at-large hopes.

39. Loyola-Chicago (MVC; 24-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
23 3-2 111 *

Fightin' Sister Jeans are back in the Dance. Veteran and experienced play at guard will prove invaluable.

40. Miami (FL) (ACC; 23-10 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
63 4-3 81

Fought valiantly against Duke, yet again. Superb offensive team, but defensie is lacking.

No. 11 Seeds

41. Wyoming (MWC; 24-8 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
48 4-5 97

Snapped 19-game losing streak in Vegas sneaking by UNLV. No doubt Cowboys are IN.

42. Indiana (Big Ten; 20-13 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
38 4-8 44

In command for roughly 90% of contest against Indiana, but couldn't slam the door.

43. Virginia Tech (ACC; 23-12 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
30 3-5 80 🔼 *

Cattoor zoning with career high 31 points on seven made triples. VA Tech is winning multiple games.

44. Michigan (Big Ten; 17-14 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
34 5-10 5

Gut-wrenching collapse against Indiana. Didn't register a FG for nearly 13 minutes. Still, enough for at-large.

45. Davidson (A-10; 25-6 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
43 2-2 136 *

Sniped by Richmond in the A-10 final, but one of the most offensive efficient teams likely won't be left out.

No. 12 Seeds

46. Texas A&M (SEC; 22-11 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
51 4-9 50 🔼

Aggies' searing stretch in SEC Tournament has it on the brink of an auto. May have enough for at-large.

47. Rutgers (Big Ten; 18-13 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
78 6-6 37

Such a tricky team to forecast for the Dance. Woeful NET ranking and three Q3/Q4 Ls, but the Q1 wins ...

48. Richmond (A-10; 23-12 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
82 1-2 110 🔼

Spiders crawl into field after improbable run through A-10. Golden, Gilyard and Burton stellar threesome.

49. UAB (C-USA; 25-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
49 2-1 185 *

Blazers catapult into the projected field after North Texas' dismissal. No. 1 ranked team in C-USA in offensive efficiency.

50. Chattanooga (Southern; 25-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
64 1-2 176 *

Jean-Baptiste miracle buzzer-beater shoots Mocs into the field. Snakes back a bite.

No. 13 Seeds

51. South Dakota State (Summit; 26-4 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
65 0-2 253 *

Mayo is the proper condiment. Freshman's runner with 41 seconds left a clutch basket in gaining Summit auto.

52. Vermont (AmEast; 27-5 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
59 0-1 331 *

Tour de force yet again in the American East. Broken record, but Catamounts are back in the tourney.

53. New Mexico State (WAC; 22-6 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
82 2-0 156 *

Stellar rebounding squad, generating a second chance on 35.2% of WAC possessions.

54. Akron (MAC; 22-9 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
136 0-2 227 🔼 *

Zippity doo dah. Akron winners of eight straight games. Pounding rock inside over stretch -- 54% from 2.

No. 14 Seeds

55. Yale (Ivy; 20-11 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
147 0-4 171 🔼 *

Bulldogs were the last Ivy League team to dance in 2019. Bulldogs are the first in league's return to tourney.

56. Colgate (Patriot; 21-11 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
126 0-2 329 *

Jack happy Raiders rain torrents from outside -- 40.0 3PT% in Patriot play. Possible Cinderella.

57. Montana State (Big Sky; 24-7 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
127 0-2 342 *

Belo gets buckets for the Bobcats. Junior big man totaling 57.9% from inside the arc.

61. Saint Peter's (Metro; 17-11 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
133 0-3 127 *

Peacocks punish the opposition with lockdown defense. Rank No. 6 in effective FG% D. Cinderella?

No. 15 Seeds

58. Jacksonville State (A-Sun; 19-10 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
143 0-2 288 *

Send Bellarmine a gift basket. With Knight ineligible, Gamecocks earn bid after Jacksonville ousted.

59. Georgia St. (SB; 17-10 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
159 0-1 252 *

Panthers on the prowl defensively ranking top-30 over the last month in D efficiency.

61. Longwood (Big Sth; 22-6 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
124 0-1 348 *

Toss out all of your sophomoric jokes. The Lancers are dancing, own guard play and won't be an easy out.

62. Delaware (CAA; 21-12 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
137 0-4 232 *

Fightin' Joe Flaccos are in the field after eliminating UNCW. Set pace in eFG% offense in CAA.

No. 16 Seeds

63. Cal State Fullerton (BW; 19-10 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
154 0-2 256 🔼 *

Fullerton undercut Long Beach in a late-night stunner. Getting to FT line, cashing in, the name of their game.

64. Norfolk State (MEAC; 21-6 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
162 0-1 352 *

Upperclassmen laden Spartans wield a sharpened short sword on D – No. 29 eFG% D.

65. Wright State (Horiz; 20-13 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
191 0-1 343 *

The Wright stuff. Came from behind against a scrappy and relentless NKU bunch to punch ticket.

66. Bryant (NEC; 21-9 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
201 0-1 320 *

Advance to NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. Peter Kiss is quite the showman.

67. Texas Southern (SWAC; 15-12 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
202 1-3 211 *

Best defensive team in the SWAC allowing just 0.908 points per possession. Won at Florida in non-conf.

68. Texas A&M Corpus Christi (Sthland; 22-11 overall)
Net Q1 SOS Change AQ
242 0-2 358 🔼 *

In the upside down Southland, the Islanders are the projected reps. No. 16 in nation in OR%.

First Four OUT

  • Xavier
  • Notre Dame
  • SMU
  • Wake Forest
Follow Bally Sports' Brad Evans on Twitter.

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