Multiple times each week, Bally Sports’ resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to bang the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether they’re sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
Jayson Tatum OVER 3.5 turnovers vs. Heat (-140, BetMGM)
Have mercy on our miserable souls, gambling gods! This bettor cannot endure a single second more of the units-draining Eastern Conference finals. Unpredictable, topsy-turvy and downright boring, Heat/Celtics has this consumer turning to the bottle. Though at times brilliant, Tatum has had an odd turnover propensity that's left many baffled in what’s been an overall bewildering series. Three times in five games, he’s coughed it up on at least four occasions. Over the entirety of the playoffs, he’s averaged 4.3 turnovers per game, reaching the desired threshold in nine of 16 matchups. Miami, which has forced 15.1 turnovers per game in the playoffs, is an outstanding defensive team. With their backs against the wall, the Heat resemble a competitive team, at least on the defensive end.
NBA postseason record: 26-33, -6.74 units
Yordan Alvarez to record an RBI at Mariners (+120, FanDuel)
There’s a subsect of the baseball betting universe that believes batter versus pitcher data is completely irrelevant. It’s far from a foolproof measurement, but talking to former big leaguers about it, most conclude some batters simply pick up the ball better off some pitchers. It’s honestly not rocket science. Alvarez could throw his support behind BvP zealots. Over seven career at-bats versus Seattle’s Chris Flexen he’s recorded three hits, two for homers, with five RBI. The righty, who sports an underwhelming 4.98 ERA and 1.87 HR/9, has been occasionally blitzed by the longball. Alvarez, who has a 34 percent chance of homering according to Sabersim, has touched ‘em all 12 times this season. Additionally, he’s knocked in a run in three of his last five games and in all three prior matchups versus the Mariners. Whether on a moonshot or missile single, he’s a terrific tail at plus odds.