Bally Sports’ resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours legal sports in a search of market inefficiencies he’s willing to slap some action on. Each week, crack open a cold one with him as he sorts through his favorite six-pack of player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. (Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered.)
Week 9 Fantasy Flames: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver and tight end
1. Tyreek Hill OVER 87.5 receiving yards at Bears (-115, BetMGM)
The Cheetah is undeniably a fleet-footed predator equipped with an insatiable appetite for yardage. Targeted a NFL-leading 11.2 times per game, he’s forged an unbreakable bond with Tua Tagovailoa. Ranked top-three in total air yards (1,044), yards per route run (3.83) and deep targets (18), Hill has blitzed secondaries with repeated chunk gains. Overall, he’s crossed the 89-yard mark in five of eight contests. Another extensive effort is in the offing.
Yes, projected primary dance partner CB Kindle Vildor has gone stride-for-stride with assignments, allowing an 81.7 passer rating. Also, the Bears have given up just two 90-plus wide receivers. Still, Hill’s unreal route-running and separation speed, combined with his rapport with Tua, shouldn’t be discounted, especially against a defense that just dealt its two best defensive players.
2. DJ Moore OVER 66.5 receiving yards at Bengals (-115, DraftKings)
A central subject in this space the last two weeks, Moore is a classic example of “Good things come to those who wait.” His chemistry with PJ Walker is budding. In his last two games, Moore has attracted 13 of 21 targets for 221 yards and two touchdowns. The production and usage spike should continue.
Without the services of CB Chidobe Awuzie, Cincinnati’s secondary is standing on unstable ground. Moore’s most likely draw, Eli Apple, has allowed 14.6 yards per catch and a 108.1 passer rating. In total, six WRs have eclipsed the proposed total against the Bengals with half coming over the last two weeks. Let the recency bias convince you.
3. Travis Etienne UNDER 79.5 rushing yards vs. Raiders (-115, DraftKings)
An entire hatchery of eggs cracked, smeared and slimed Raiders faces last week in New Orleans. Shut out while tallying an embarrassing 183 total yards, they were omelets from start to finish. Still, the Silver and Black are a stingy run defense. Pass-catching backs, like Etienne, have afflicted damage on quick pitches, but Las Vegas has surrendered just 3.94 yards per carry and 84.6 rushing yards per game to RBs.
Yes, Etienne is habanera hot, topping the above total in three straight games. But expect most of his yards to be of the vertical variety. Only Derrick Henry and Dameon Pierce have crossed 80 ground yards against the Raiders this season. In an attempt to regain respect, the visiting team reverses course.
Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) is tackled during the NFL football game between Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars at Wembley Stadium London, Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022. (AP Photo/Kirsty Wigglesworth)
4. Josh Allen UNDER 279.5 passing yards at Jets (-115, BetMGM)
He may be a front-runner for league MVP on a Bills team about to conquer its Super Bowl curse, but in a divisional matchup in Jersey, the masses shouldn’t underestimate the Jets. Robert Saleh has his defense grooving, particularly in coverage. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed have both surrendered sub-60.0 passer ratings to their assignments. As a group, New York has yielded a mere 6.30 passing yards per attempt and 220.0 passing yards per game to QBs.
The Allen-to-Diggs combination has been downright lethal. It’s the main reason why the QB has cashed the over on passing yards in five of seven games. However, underrating the playoff-trending Jets isn’t advisable. Zero have climbed over 280 against Saleh’s club this year. Allen is unlikely to be the first.
5. DeAndre Hopkins OVER 77.5 receiving yards vs. Seahawks (-115, BetMGM)
Without Hollywood Brown in uniform, the volume, on par with a peak-era Metallica concert, is at an ear-piercing level for Hopkins. Since his return to the lineup in Week 7, the Cardinals wideout has enticed 27 targets and grabbed 22 passes for a combined 262 yards. Fiery.
His projected primary assignment, Tariq Woolen, has greatly outperformed his Round 5 NFL Draft value, as he’s surrendered a 55.6 catch percentage and 50.2 pass rating. However, the cranked volume speaks. Given Kyler Murray’s tunnel vision for Hopkins, fading him isn’t warranted, especially knowing the total is hugging 50. D-Hop jumps over yet again.
6. Matthew Stafford UNDER 258.5 passing yards at Buccaneers (-115, DraftKings)
The Rams’ Super Bowl hangover is screaming for Pedialyte. Injuries, disgruntled players (e.g. Cam Akers) and general ineptitude outside of Cooper Kupp have transformed the champs into chumps. As a result, Stafford’s numbers have nosedived. He’s currently No. 19 in total deep targets, No. 21 in total air yards and No. 22 in air yards per attempt. His QB12 standing in adjusted completion percentage is commendable, but the surface numbers are a far cry from 2021.
Overall, Stafford has failed to top 260 yards in five of seven contests. Tampa Bay isn’t nearly as unforgiving against the pass compared to recent seasons. Still, the Bucs have coughed up only 6.4 passing yards per attempt and 213.8 passing yards per game. Not a single signal caller has defeated the proposed threshold. With CB Carlton Davis expected back, don’t bet on Stafford being the first.
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