Bally Sports’ resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours legal sports in a search of market inefficiencies he’s willing to slap some action on. Each week, crack open a cold one with him as he sorts through his favorite six-pack of player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. (Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered.)
Week 8 Fantasy Flames: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver and tight end
1. DJ Moore OVER 54.5 receiving yards at Falcons (-115, BetMGM)
Written off by the masses largely due to Carolina’s stunningly ineffective QB play, Moore was a lost soul. The trades of Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson had many wondering when the veteran receiver would find a new locale. Management, however, is committed to rebuilding around Moore.
Targeted 10 times by PJ Walker last week while hauling in six receptions for 69 yards and a touchdown, Moore should receive steady force feedings. HIs 39.4 air yards percentage (WR4 in the league) proves many in-game meals will be of the chunk variety. This week is very much included. Atlanta has given up the second-most wide receiver yards in the NFL, and 13 wideouts have tallied at least 55 yards against the Falcons. Throw in projected primary assignment Darren Hall’s forgiving coverages (137.7 passer rating allowed), and DJ is set to spin several records.
2. Melvin Gordon UNDER 39.5 rushing yards vs. Jaguars (-115, DraftKings)
Nathaniel Hackett, who realistically could be a one-and-done head coach with how fundamentally unsound his Broncos have played, has roasted glutes from the hot seat. Many flaws are ailing Denver, most notably in the backfield. After experiencing a nationally televised benching, Gordon’s re-promotion into the starting lineup is nothing short of puzzling. Still, even with Mike Boone injured, Latavius Murray has forced full-blown RBBC. Expect him to again play on roughly 50 percent of the snaps with 10-12 carries across the pond.
The underrated Jacksonville run defense has allowed a commendable 4.17 yards per carry and 86.4 rushing yards per game to RBs. It’s a low number, but ultimately, Gordon is hard to trust.
3. Josh Jacobs OVER 83.5 rushing yards at Saints (-115, DraftKings)
Similar to the hangover after multiple boozy slushies on Bourbon Street, Jacobs triggers repeated headaches for the opposition. Presumably motivated by the Raiders’ refusal to pick up his fifth-year option, the former Alabama slammer has played as if he’s possessed. He’s rushed for 140-plus yards in three straight games, and he ranks top-10 in yards after contact per attempt (3.98) and missed tackles forced (36).
With 20 carries or more registered in three consecutive contests, Jacobs should again receive a voluminous workload. New Orleans, atypically allowing 4.69 yards per carry and 101.3 rushing yards per game to RBs, presents a golden matchup. Overall, four RBs in seven games have raced past the proposed number. Total it up and Jacobs should again leave investors in the black.
4. Stefon Diggs OVER 78.5 receiving yards vs. Packers (-115, DraftKings)
Slicing and dicing the opposition with a knife-wielding inclination on par with Michael Myers, Diggs has steadily cashed tickets on his receiving yards prop. Four times this season, he’s tallied a century mark effort. Another hundo could be on the immediate horizon.
Yes, Green Bay has given up just 6.97 passing yards per attempt and three 80-plus yard wide receiver performances. However, if Diggs draws the very accommodating Eric Stokes in coverage (129.7 passer rating allowed), he will once again cut the competition. Keep in mind, the Bills receiver averaged a mighty 10.7 targets per game and ranks top-eight in yards per route run and yards after the catch.
On a pass-heavy team with Josh Allen’s dynamic downfield arm, Diggs makes this -EV bettor a few dollars.
5. Derrick Henry OVER 12.5 receiving yards at Texans (-115, DraftKings)
Move over Christian McCaffrey. When it comes to elite pass-catching RBs, Henry has a club membership … kind of.
Out of left field, the Titans running back has been featured as a primary dump-off option by Ryan Tannehill, making the most of his 7.0 average routes run per contest. Averaging 2.2 receptions per game, Henry has crossed the proposed threshold in three of his last four games. Digging deeper, he remarkably is setting the pace in RB yards per route run (3.12) and ranks No. 4 at his position in yards per reception (10.1).
Unpredictably, Henry has become a reliable 3-5 target per game weapon. If leaned on again underneath, he’s a strong candidate to cash. Houston has yielded 5.5 receptions and 38.5 receiving yards per game to RBs. It’s strange to tail Henry on receiving yards, but the trend is your friend.
6. David Montgomery OVER 7.5 receiving yards at Cowboys (-110, DraftKings)
In another episode of chasing a single play payday, #MandatoryMontgomery just needs one catch to catch. Just one.
Yes, he’s merely averaged 7.0 routes per game and is conceding roughly 40% of the opportunity share to Khalil Herbert, but he’s netting 11.3 yards per reception and has eclipsed the above total four times in six games. Also, his 3.25 YAC per attempt and 28.5 missed tackle rate rank top-20 among RBs. In other words, he typically makes the first defender or three miss in open space.
Bears QB Justin Fields has largely ignored Montgomery when surveying the field. Still, the Cowboys have allowed 12 rushers to reach eight receiving yards in a game. Please, Fields, throw the ball at least in his general direction once or twice.
Season record: 19-22, -4.49 units