Bally Sports’ resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours legal sports in a search of market inefficiencies he’s willing to slap some action on. Each week, crack open a cold one with him as he sorts through his favorite six-pack of player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. (Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered.)
1. Tyler Lockett OVER 62.5 receiving yards at Lions (-115, BetMGM)
As detailed in this week’s wide receiver Flames, Lockett could stuff dollar bills into your pocket. The matchup, at least on paper, is spectacular. Whether against Mike Hughes in the slot (17.9 yards per catch, 145.8 passer rating allowed) or Amani Oruwariye outside (119.2 passer rating), the Seahawks' veteran chunk gainer should tear up the competition. Geno Smith has fallen head over heels for No. 16. Over the last two weeks, he’s targeted Lockett 22 times, connecting on 18 receptions for 183 yards. Given the receiver’s knack for acquiring breathing room — he checks in at WR2 in average target separation — and blossoming compatibility with Geno, surpassing the proposed number is quite buyable.
2. Rashod Bateman OVER 45.5 receiving yards vs. Bills (-114, FanDuel)
This prop is equal to scoring sample booze in the liquor aisle of your favorite grocery store. It also packs an intoxicating buzz. In a contest with a point total hovering around 52, it’s odd this line sits below 50 yards, especially for a Ravens wide receiver who’s walloped the competition on explosive pass plays. Among qualifying WRs, Bateman slots top-10 in average depth of target (16.3), yards after catch (119) and yards per route run (3.23). The Bills secondary is getting healthier and has done a commendable job limiting chunk plays, but Cooper Kupp, Treylon Burks and Jaylen Waddle all reached at least 47 yards against them. Bateman, who smashed the over on the proposed total in three straight games, is bankable in what should be a Madden-on-rookie-level game.
3. Cooper Rush OVER 230.5 passing yards vs. Commanders (-115, DraftKings)
Yes, he’s no Tony Romo, but if Rush continues to play at a high level similar to what he achieved Monday against the Giants, he, too, could pitch a pair of Sketchers. Oddsmakers, clearly asleep at the wheel, are still posting weekly soft numbers for the QB. Currently No. 2 in play-action and No. 3 in red-zone completion percentage, he’s established a solid rapport with Noah Brown and CeeDee Lamb, embarrassing drops included. Rush typically thrives in the intermediate field, but provided he reaches 30 attempts again, he should cross 230 yards against the division rival. Washington has allowed 7.83 passing yards per attempt and 287.0 passing yards per game to QBs. If Jared Goff can tally 256 against the Commanders, the elevated Cowboys backup can do the same.
4. Javonte Williams UNDER 51.5 rushing yards at Raiders (-101, Caesars)
The Broncos coaching staff is clearly a few beers off a six-pack. Their insistence on deploying a full blown RBBC is incredibly puzzling. #JuggernautJavonte possesses more juice than an Ocean Spray factory. Still, as witnessed in last week’s painful-to-watch win against San Francisco, he’s used sparingly. In fact, he’s played on 53.6% of team snaps, earning 56.3% of the opportunity share. To be fair, Melvin Gordon deserves some work, but for Mike Boone to replace anyone on third downs is unquestionably absurd. Despite his terrific 32.4 missed tackle rate and 3.57 YAC per attempt, Williams will again surrender touches. Because of his depressed workload, the under hits.
5. Elijah Moore OVER 42.5 receiving yards at Steelers (-115, BetMGM)
The loyalty Zach Wilson has toward the sophomore Jets receiver presents a fantastic prop buying opportunity. Take advantage. No receiver through three weeks has logged more routes than Moore (147 in total). His voluminous usage combined with the established rapport imply a breakout performance. His top-20 standing in aDOT (13.8) and total air yards (304) just add another gas can to the fire. The matchup, too, stokes the flames. His primary assignment, DB Cameron Sutton, has allowed 14 receptions on 22 targets, good for a 63.6 catch percentage. Yes, Moore has yet to top 50 yards in a single game, but, again, the transition from Joe Flacco to the tender-faced Wilson cannot be understated.
6. Drake London OVER 56.5 receiving yards vs. Browns (-110, BetMGM)
Play “Fantastic Voyage” on loop. RIP, Coolio. For those who chose to ride-ride-slippity-slide on the Falcons rookie’s yardage props over the first three weeks, congrats, they steadily cashed. Sportsbooks have adjusted slightly, advancing the above offering from the 40s into the mid-50s, but it’s still highly grabbable. Cleveland’s underachieving secondary has yielded 7.28 passing yards per attempt and four 80-plus yard wideouts. Driving home the lean, London’s expected one-on-one matchup against cornerback Greg Newsome, who’s allowed a 64.7 catch percentage and 111.6 passer rating, is enticing. Add in London’s massive 32.9% target share and top-10 output in yards per route run and yards after catch, and the OVER argument strengthens.