Bally Sports’ resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours legal sports in a search of market inefficiencies he’s willing to slap some action on. Each week, crack open a cold one with him as he sorts through his favorite six-pack of player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. (Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered.)
1. Trey Lance OVER 38.5 rushing yards vs. Seahawks (-115, DraftKings)
Sounds familiar? Similar to Jalen Hurts rushing yards props early last season, eventually the ‘books will come to the realization any number under 40 is Charmin soft. Identical to Week 1, take advantage. In rain-drenched conditions fit for frogs, Lance scurried his way to 54 yards on 13 carries against the Bears. His passing skills were clearly unrefined, but he’s comfortable reading and reacting to defenses, whether on opportunistic or designed runs. Against a Seattle front that allowed 5.32 yards per carry to RBs, Lance, who operates like he’s a backfield plow, should sprint to a few chunk gains. When time expires, another 50-plus yard effort on the ground is quite attainable.
2. Tyreek Hill OVER 66.5 receiving yards at Ravens (-115, BetMGM)
Trading in the landlocked plains of Kansas City for palm trees and pastel-colored shorts, Hill didn’t skip a beat despite the downgrade from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. Against the rival Patriots, he was targeted a Herculean 12 times, hauling in eight passes for 94 yards, His resulting 40.0% target share was one of the highest in Week 1. Another sizable workload is on the horizon. Out is Kyle Fuller and in is Marcus Peters, an established cornerback who missed all of training camp and the preseason due to rehab from an ACL tear suffered prior to last year. Given the accumulated rust, Hill, who totaled 44 yards after the catch last Sunday, is in line for a stellar followup.
3. Davante Adams OVER 83.5 receiving yards vs. Cardinals (-115, DraftKings)
The romance between Derek Carr and his former college teammate is alive and very steamy. In Week 1 against the Chargers, Adams tallied an obscene 17 targets, catching 10 passes for 141 yards and a TD. Under the hood, the Raiders wide receiver compiled 145 air yards, totaled 58 yards after the catch and scribbled 3.28 yards per route run. Another force-feeding is likely on Sunday (apologies, CB Marco Wilson). Arizona was sliced and diced by Patrick Mahomes in Week 1, yielding 9.23 passing yards per attempt. Considering the potential enormous volume and matchup, Adams is a strong candidate to post back-to-back 100-yard performances.
NFL prop bets for Week 2: Look at Carson Wentz, Saquon Barkley and Melvin Gordon
4. Tyler Lockett UNDER 48.5 receiving yards at Niners (-115, DraftKings)
Outplayed by a Geno Smith-led team. Russell Wilson, dapper tuxedo and all, surely left his old stomping grounds overcome with bitterness. One of Russell’s former main flames, Lockett, started off hot hauling in a 16-yard reception early in the first quarter, but for the rest of the game, he rarely had his number called. Targeted a mere four times, he snagged three passes for 28 yards. Most discouragingly, Lockett averaged just 1.06 yards per route run. Another quiet effort is likely in the offing. San Francisco harbors its own resentment. Though upended in rain-soaked Chicago, the Niners secondary allowed only four receptions for 99 yards to wide receivers. Whether primarily lining up in the slot or outside, Lockett is a fadeable WR with Geno likely again fixated on DK Metcalf.
5. Alvin Kamara UNDER 83.5 rushing/receiving yards vs. Buccaneers (-110, BetMGM)
His cavity might be somewhat dinged (ribs), but Kamara is confident he’ll play this week against the division rival Bucs. In a pair of matchups last year, Tampa Bay had the rusher’s number, limiting him to 76 and 31 total yards in a pair of matchups. Yes, the Bucs D-line has experienced some turnover, but in its throttling of Dallas last week, the unit limited ‘Boys backs to just 3.75 yards per carry. Kamara did register an appreciable 3.56 yards after contact per attempt in Week 1, but he fell short in superficial stats, compiling a bland 46 yards on 12 touches. Knowing his physical shortcomings and Tampa’s general stoutness, fading him is a smart money move.
6. Drake London OVER 47.5 receiving yards at Rams (+106, Caesars)
With the rookie receiver’s tender knee from a mild preseason setback, naysayers tempered expectations greatly for the debut of the No. 8 overall pick. Not exactly folding, London extended a middle digit to all who didn’t believe. In a shootout against the Saints, he amassed seven targets, five receptions and 74 yards. Impressive. Sterling in advanced categories, he also racked 33 yards after the catch and 3.36 yards per route run (WR13). The Rams were humbled by Buffalo in Week 1, particularly hyped corner Jalen Ramsey. Against Josh Allen and friends, the DB allowed a perfect passer rating (158.3) to his assignments. Possibly hitting the OVER in garbage time, London packs the Union Jack.