Bally Sports’ resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours legal sports in a search of market inefficiencies he’s willing to slap some action on. Each week, crack open a cold one with him as he sorts through his favorite six-pack of player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. (Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered.)
Week 12 Fantasy Flames: Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver and tight end
1. D’Onta Foreman OVER 54.5 rushing yards vs. Broncos (-110, BetMGM)
Opposing running backs have pounded Denver with a flair similar to your uncle attacking stuffing at the Thanksgiving table. This season, the not-so-boastful Broncos have allowed 4.75 yards per carry and 98.7 rushing yards per game to RBs. In total, eight rushers have surpassed the above number in 10 games.
Truthfully, Foreman has some rollercoaster tendencies. Yes, he’s crossed 100 ground yards three times since Week 7, but in the other two matchups during that stretch, he couldn’t muster 30 rushing yards. Still, he’s logged 55.1% of the snaps and racked a 3.19 YAC per attempt mark in his last five. Sam Darnold is a complete wild card, but given Denver’s disastrous season, another hundo effort is entirely plausible for Carolina’s wrecking ball.
2. Isiah Pacheco OVER 59.5 rushing yards vs. Rams (-115, DraftKings)
The Chiefs rookie from Rutgers is like every soccer mom trying to score 2-for-1 pine-scented candles at a holiday sale — a battering ram. The fall-forward back has come on strong in his past two games. Over that span, he’s accumulated 31 carries, plowing for 82 and 107 rushing yards. His 3.45 yards after contact per attempt rubber-stamps the punishment afflicted.
On presumably another 50-60% of the snaps played, Pacheco is likely to further demoralize the repugnant Rams. Yes, Los Angeles has allowed a mere 4.06 yards per carry and 81.2 rushing yards per game to RBs, but with Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined and the Chiefs heavily favored (-15.5), Pacheco, on another 15-plus carries, smashes and dashes for at least 65 yards.
3. Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 40.5 receiving yards vs. Buccaneers (-115, DraftKings)
Like a door-buster purchase of a waffle iron for $5 at your nearest Target, a DPJ receiving yards prop under 50 yards is quite the score. He’s topped the proposed number in seven straight games, often coasting into the 70-80 yards range. His plus field-stretching skills (No. 24 in aDOT and No. 22 in yards per target) have meshed well with Jacoby Brissett’s occasional willingness to chuck balls downfield.
Cleveland Browns wide receiver Donovan Peoples-Jones (11) pulls away from Buffalo Bills cornerback Dane Jackson (30) during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2022, in Detroit. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
Sure, the Buccaneers are refreshed after the extended rest post-Germany, but Peoples-Jones' projected assignment, CB Carlton Davis, hasn’t exactly scored high on his weekly exams. This season, he’s yielded 12.1 yards per catch and a 94.3 passer rating. Overall, 13 wide receivers have reached 42 yards against the Bucs. On what should be another six-plus targets, Donovan again shows why he’s a man of the Peoples.
4. Treylon Burks OVER 3.5 receptions vs. Bengals (+100, BetMGM)
'Tis the giving season. When plus odds come across your computer screen on a favorable player prop, a boisterous “HO! HO! HO!” is voiced. See Burks, Treylon. The rookie has risen to the occasion the last two weeks, averaging 23 routes run and totaling 14 targets and 10 receptions. Currently No. 20 in catchable target rate, he’s benefited from accurate Ryan Tannehill tosses, many of the chunk variety.
Primarily against CB Cam Taylor-Britt, Burks should again be an offensive focal point. The Bengals DB has allowed an 84.6 catch percentage and 133.0 passer rating to his assignments. More encouragingly, 11 wide receivers have recorded four or more receptions against Cincinnati this year. Titan up!
5. Travis Etienne OVER 17.5 receiving yards vs. Ravens (-115, DraftKings)
The Jaguars running back has built-in chemistry with Trevor Lawrence going back to their Clemson days, as the QB has a knack for finding Etienne in the flat. Given the matchup against a Ravens defense surrendering 5.3 receptions and 44.3 receiving yards per game, that relationship should be on display Sunday in Jacksonville.
The fact Etienne averages 15.1 routes run per game, 20.2 receiving yards per game and 9.2 yards per reception (No. 4 among RBs) only amplifies the likelihood for a cash. Refreshed off the bye and at home, he becomes a focal point against Baltimore’s aggressive pass rush.
6. Michael Carter OVER (WHATEVER THE NUMBER IS) receptions vs. Bears (-WHATEVER THE JUICE, WHEREVER)
A check-down Charlie extraordinaire. That, my fellow betting degens, is precisely what QB Mike White is. In four games with the promoted backup under center in 2021, Carter amassed a plethora of catches. Over that stretch, he hauled in 5.5 receptions and 60.5 receiving yards per game.
Underutilized as a pass catcher often this year, Carter should no longer take a backseat, not against the Bears defense. Chicago is more Mice than Monsters of the Midway. Dealing away their best ball-swarmers on defense at the trade deadline, the Bears are unquestionably one of the most forgiving units in the league. In total, they’ve allowed 4.4 receptions and 33.0 receiving yards per game to RBs. Similar to what Rhamondre Stevenson achieved as a receiver against Chicago in Week 7 (eight catches for 58 yards), Carter chews up a lackluster D in small doses.
Season record: 32-32, -2.19 units
