Bally Sports’ resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours legal sports in a search of market inefficiencies he’s willing to slap some action on. Each week, crack open a cold one with him as he sorts through his favorite six-pack of player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. (Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered.)
1. Justin Fields OVER 71.5 rushing yards at Falcons (-115, BetMGM)
NEVER. FADE. JUSTIN. FIELDS. It’s taken the oddsmakers an eternity to come to their senses and raise the bar on the modern-day Michael Vick, but despite the inflated line, it’s still not recommended to wager on the under. Whether on designed or opportunistic runs, he’s repeatedly getting 10-15 yard chunks with the occasional 40-plus scamper mixed in. He’s topped 100 yards in consecutive weeks and tallied at least 80-plus in five of his last six games.
Joe Burrow and PJ Walker both recorded 20 rushing yards against the Falcons, the highest total the defense has yielded this season. Still, they have conceded 4.23 yards per carry to RBs (which Fields essentially operates with 10-15 carries per game) and have not faced a QB with amped electricity. As fans of the #FadeTheNoise radio/StreamYard show know, The Outfield’s “Your Love” plays on loop when Fields’ name is mentioned. Blast it.
2. Darius Slayton OVER 43.5 receiving yards vs. Lions (+100, DraftKings)
Nothing ignites the salivary glands and over wagers quite like a matchup against the Hello Kitties. If not for this writer’s affinity for the Bears, Slayton would have topped this week’s list. Quietly, he’s averaged 20.2 routes run, attracted 28 targets and eclipsed the over in four of his past five games. In addition, he’s WR3 in yards per target (11.7) and WR9 in yards per reception (17.9) on the season.
Of course, his quarterback, Daniel Jones, is the opposite of a gun-ablazin’ passer. The signal-caller ranks QB35 in air yards per attempt. Still, the opponent is mouthwatering. This season, Detroit has allowed 15 wide receivers to reach 46 yards and have yielded 8.15 passing yards per attempt. The cherry on the sundae is Slayton’s projected assignment, CB Mike Hughes, who has given up a 118.3 passer rating. Slayton slays.
3. SGP: Jonathan Taylor 70+ rushing yards/Colts +10.5 (alt-line) vs. Eagles (+120, DraftKings)
Former Colt and TV mouthpiece Jeff Saturday is undefeated. Those are words this scribe never thought would require the energy to type. After upending the Raiders, thanks in large part to Taylor’s resurgence and the reinsertion of Matt Ryan into the starting lineup, it’s possible Indy won’t be the butt of jokes moving forward. A 6.5-point underdog at home against the now-blemished Eagles, they, and Taylor, shouldn’t be underestimated.
The running back, finally healed from an early season high-ankle sprain, smashed and dashed his way to 147 yards and a TD last Sunday. In the encore, another triple-digit tally is achievable. This season, Philly has allowed 4.60 yards per carry and 99.3 yards per carry to RBs. On what’s likely another voluminous workload, Taylor continues his numbers rejuvenation. And to sweeten the deal, the Colts cover on the alternate line.
4. Terrace Marshall OVER 33.5 rushing yards at Ravens (-115, DraftKings)
Here’s a ticket-cashing formula: 1) Your team is a 12.5-point underdog, 2) You’re averaging 20.1 routes run per game over the last four, 3) You’re netting 17.4 yards per reception, 4) The opponent has given up the fourth-most yards to wide receivers.
Yes, Baker Mayfield, a better commercial actor than quarterback, is under center once again, but the OVER case is arguable. Marshall has hauled in at least 40 yards in three straight games. To be fair, his projected primary adversary, CB Marlon Humphrey, has allowed a lowly 67.4 passer rating to his assignments. However, shifted about within Carolina’s scheme, the wideout has logged 13.5% of his snaps in the slot, an area where Damarion Williams with his 139.1 passer rating allowed roams. Similar to the rain-drenched outing against the Falcons, Marshall may need just one catch to score the cover.
5. CeeDee Lamb OVER 73.5 receiving yards at Vikings (-115, DraftKings)
In the Land of 10,000 Lakes, Lamb is set to make a cannonball splash. Minnesota, who sportsbooks have taken tons of wagers on to win the Super Bowl, is all the rage. Shirtless Kirk Cousins, with more ice than Antarctica around his neck, has certainly influenced wagering minds. However, there are still visible issues in the Vikings defense.
Primary slot corner Chandon Sullivan, Lamb’s projected dance partner, has surrendered a catch rate of 84.0% and a 118.4 passer rating to his assignments. In other words, the wideout, who accounts for 33.0% of the team target share, should detonate inside the dome. Five times this season, he’s tallied 75 yards or greater. Throw in his top-12 standing in yards per route run and total deep ball targets, and only one answer on this prop comes into focus.
6. OGP: Gus Edwards anytime TD/Ravens ML (+115, DraftKings)
Run it back, Evans. After featuring a lighter-juiced OGP in this space last week, the six readers who regularly read this piece are thirsty for more. As a person of the people, it’s inappropriate to deny consumer wishes.
Gus “The Bus” has exited the garage once again. No longer parked, he’s set to handle roughly 40-50% of the opportunity share against a meek opponent in Carolina, which has given up a friendly 4.73 yards per carry and 113.1 rushing yards per game to RBs. In total, 13 cross-the-chalk carries have been recorded against the Panthers. Considering Edwards’ tackle-busting brawn (4.22 YAC/attempt), renewed health and the Ravens’ minus-12.5-point line, he should run with measurable success in what could be a Week 11 rout.