Bally Sports’ resident truffle pig, Brad Evans, constantly scours legal sports in a search of market inefficiencies he’s willing to slap some action on. Each week, crack open a cold one with him as he sorts through his favorite six-pack of player props. Fade or follow? That, of course, is up to you. (Note: All bets are worth 1 unit plus the juice. Example: -115 = 1.15 units wagered.)
1. Justin Fields OVER 58.5 rushing yards vs. Lions (-115, BetMGM)
Daddy want. Daddy need. Daddy gotta have … all of the possible power emitted by the sledgehammer. This line is heavenly for myriad reasons. For starters, the Lions are abominable on defense essentially everywhere. They’ve yielded 5.01 yards per carry to running backs, which is basically what Fields operates as 10-12 times per game.
Jalen Hurts, who accumulated 90 rushing yards against Detroit in Week 1, is the only QB to reach the over this season. Still, Geno Smith and ancient Aaron Rodgers both bolted for 40-plus ground yards against the Hello Kitties. Fields, who’s morphed into Michael Vick the Madden version the last four weeks, has racked 88, 82, 60 and an NFL-record 178 rushing yards. On an assumed sizable workload, the supernova detonates for another sweat-free cover.
2. Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 41.5 receiving yards at Dolphins (-115, DraftKings)
As outlined in this week’s Fantasy Flames WR/TE, the Browns WR2 shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s sailed past the proposed threshold in four of five games, topping 70 receiving yards frequently. His style of play, by definition, is steeped in explosive pass plays. Getting a step consistently on defenders (WR11 in average target separation), he ranks top-30 in yards per target and yards per reception.
Jacoby Brissett will surely spin spirals most often to Amari Cooper, but expect a chunk gain on the five to seven times he zeros in on DPJ. His projected primary assignment, Xavien Howard, has been THE most welcoming DB in the league, surrendering a 144.6 passer rating and 16.6 yards per catch. Want to boost the bankroll? Get down with the Brown.
3. Leonard Fournette UNDER 48.5 rushing yards vs. Seahawks in Germany (-110, DraftKings)
With his value sinking at a velocity equal to a lead balloon weighed down by Albert Haynesworth in his prime, Fournette is highly fadable. Tampa Bay’s need for speed explains why rookie Rachaad White has experienced an increased workload. In two of the past three games, the veteran Fournette has failed to register at least 60% of the snaps. Equally concerning, he hasn’t gripped 10 or more carries in a contest four consecutive weeks.
Given his sharp volume decline and White’s elevated role, applying a stiff arm is understandable. The matchup only amplifies the need. Since Week 6, Seattle has limited RB1s to a mere 3.13 yards per carry and 41.5 rushing yards per game. In Munich, expect Fournette to get gobbled up as if he were a Bavarian pretzel.
4. Kenneth Walker III OVER 75.5 rushing yards at Buccaneers (-115, DraftKings)
Wielding foam swords in the trenches, the Buccaneers are a motley crew defensively. Once impenetrable, they’ve allowed running backs to swashbuckle through their ranks without much resistance, surrendering 4.62 yards per carry and 100.1 rushing yards per game. Amazingly, despite their shortcomings, the Bucs still has a shot at the victor’s spoils in a downtrodden NFC South, but Tampa Bay’s best days are clearly in the rear view.
Displaying power and wheels reminiscent of Shaun Alexander in his heyday, Walker has forced a missed tackle on 27.9% of his attempts and slots RB14 in yards after contact per attempt (3.26). A legitimate workhorse, he, on another 20-plus carries, plows his way to 80 yards for the fifth time since Week 5.
5. Jerry Jeudy OVER 49.5 receiving yards at Titans (-110, BetMGM)
Disgruntled leading up to the trade deadline, Jeudy, at least on the surface, has buried his frustrations. Fresh off the extended bye, he and his revitalized teammates should bring an energetic zeal to a city brimming with enthusiasm.
The Titans, on the muscular back of Derrick Henry, have played above depressed expectations. Despite their playoff-trending record, underlying weaknesses persist. Primary slot DBs Roger McCreary and Joshua Kalu have yielded 100-plus passer ratings to their assignments. Sliding past 50 yards in five straight games, Jeudy, who’s ranked in the top 15 in deep targets and yards after the catch, should be a ticket to cash.
6. OGP: Saquon Barkley 80+ rushing yards/Giants ML (-110, BetMGM)
One of my favorite tactics when lines and juice aren’t exactly favorable is constructing creative short-leg, same-game parlays, usually with two events that ideally correlate. See above.
Barkley should blaze a trail toward 100 yards. Houston is extremely spongy up front, allowing 5.72 rushing yards per game and a staggering 154.4 rushing yards per game to RBs. The Giants hammer has crossed 80 ground yards in five of seven contests. Slippery in the open field, he’s amassed 3.28 yards after contact per attempt and forced 28 missed tackles (RB10).
In what should be a positive game script, Saquon exercises his quads tirelessly, especially late while salting away the clock. Throw in Houston’s struggles on the road (1-4 straight up), and this parlay packs abundant punch.
Season record: 26-27, -2.94 units